How many people live in Canterbury?
This page explains the difference between census counts and estimates, and which data to use for which purpose. It also provides data and summary analysis for Canterbury from the Census 2013, and data and summary analysis from estimates of the resident population as at 30 June 2017.
Which data should I use?
There are two sources of information about how many people usually live in a region, city or district in New Zealand.
Census of population and dwellings
- The Census counts the usually resident population present on Census night – usually every five years
- Census counts let us compare a number of different variables (e.g. age, sex, ethnicity, occupation)
- Because the Census counts the total population, it provides useful data for sub-district/city analysis down to ‘area unit’ (population of 3,000 to 5,000; e.g. a suburb) and ‘meshblock’ (the smallest geographic unit for which Statistics New Zealand collects statistical data – around 60 to 110 people).
Estimates of the resident population
- Estimates of the resident population are prepared by Statistics New Zealand and published annually, as at 30 June
- Estimates are based on Census counts, updated for residents missed or counted more than once by the census (‘net census undercount’), residents temporarily overseas on census night, and births, deaths and net migration between census night in early March and the 30 June date of the estimate
- Consequently, population estimates are generally higher than the Census count. For example, the 2013 Census count (5 March 2013) of usually resident population for Canterbury was 539,436. The (revised) estimated resident population as at 30 June 2013 was 562,900 – a difference of 23,464 people.
Population estimates provide the most reliable numbers for annual planning and reporting purposes, and for describing the usually resident population of a region or territorial authority for a particular year.
View information about Statistics New Zealand’s population estimates.
Census of Population and Dwellings
The 2013 Census was conducted on Tuesday 5 March, and provides counts for the usually resident population in New Zealand, regional council areas and territorial authority areas within Canterbury.
The 2011 Census was postponed due to the Christchurch earthquake on 22 February 2011. Because the gap between Census 2006 and Census 2013 was seven years, changes in the data between 2006 and 2013 may be greater than in the usual five-year gap between censuses. Be careful when comparing trends.
The next census will be held on 6 March 2018.
The population of New Zealand
- The usually resident population of New Zealand grew from 3.7 million in 2001 to 4.2 million in 2013 – an average annualised increase of 1.1% per year
- 76.3% of New Zealand’s population (3.2 million people) live in the North Island; 23.7% (one million people) live in the South Island.
Canterbury region
- At the time of the 2013 Census, Canterbury, with 13% of New Zealand’s population (540,000 people), was the most populous region in the South Island, and the second most populous region in New Zealand, after the Auckland region. Even so, the population of the Auckland region (1.4 million people, 33% of New Zealand’s total population) is more than 2.5 times larger than Canterbury’s
- Between 2001 and 2006, Canterbury’s population grew by an average of 1.6% each year, close to the national average of 1.5%. Population growth dropped both nationally and in the Canterbury region between 2006 and 2013, to 0.5% average annual growth in Canterbury, and 0.7% in New Zealand as a whole.
Canterbury territorial authorities
- Calculated as a percentage of the usually resident population in the Canterbury regional council area, 63% live in Christchurch City, and 81% live in the three ‘Greater Christchurch’ territorial authority areas: Waimakariri District, Christchurch City and Selwyn District
- Before the Canterbury earthquakes of 2010-11, 65% of the population of the Canterbury region lived in Christchurch City.
Growth and decline in Canterbury TAs, 2001–2013
- Using Census counts, the average annual percentage increase in the usually resident population between 2001 and 2013 was 1.0% for the Canterbury regional council area, compared to 1.1% for New Zealand as a whole
- The three fastest growing TAs in New Zealand between 2001 and 2013 were all in the South Island: Selwyn District, Queenstown-Lakes District, and Waimakariri District
- Four Canterbury territorial authority areas experienced average annual population increases greater than either the national or regional averages: Selwyn District (4.2%), Waimakariri District (2.6%), Ashburton District (1.7%) and Hurunui District (1.3%)
- The remaining six territorial authorities also experienced average annual population increases between Census 2001 and Census 2013, but at a lower rate than the national or regional averages: Mackenzie District (just under 1.0%), Waimate District (0.5%), Christchurch City (0.4%), Timaru District (0.4%), Waitaki District (0.3%) and Kaikōura District (0.2%)
- Between 2001 and 2006 and prior to the impact of the Canterbury earthquakes, Christchurch City tended to be close to the national population growth rate.
Download data on 2013 Census counts for Canterbury (xls 21kb)
Population estimates
Population estimates provide the most reliable numbers for annual planning and reporting purposes, and for describing the usually resident population of a region or territorial authority for a particular year.
View information about Statistics New Zealand’s population estimates.
Population estimates
- New Zealand’s estimated resident population as at 30 June 2017 was 4,793,900.
- During the June 2017 year, New Zealand’s population grew by 100,700 (2.1%) – the largest ever increase for a June year. In the previous 20 years (1995-2014), New Zealand’s population grew by an average of 44,500, or 1.1% per year.
- Natural increase (births minus deaths) was 28,300 and net migration gain (arrivals minus departures) was 72,300. In the long term, however, the rate of population growth is expected to decrease.
- At 30 June 2017, half of New Zealand’s population was aged over 37 years (the median age). This is slightly lower than the median age of 37.1 years at 30 June 2016 because of the impact of migration (People aged under 15-39 accounted for nearly 70% of net migration).
- Long term, the median age is expected to continue to trend upwards as migrants, and the general population, age.
- Children (0-14 years) were 19.5% of the population at 30 June 2017, down from 19.6% in 2016.
- Between 2016 and 2017, the younger working-age population (15-39 years) increased from 33.7% to 34.1%, mainly due to migration.
- The older working-age population (40-64 years) decreased from 31.7% to 31.3%.
- The population aged 65+ increased from 14.9% to 15.1% of the population.
- Over the last two decades (1996-2017), children have decreased from 23.0% to 19.5% of the population; younger working age have decreased from 38.4% to 34.1%; older working age have increased from 27.0% to 31.3%; the population aged 65+ has increased from 11.5% to 15.1%.
Estimates by regional council area
- As at 30 June 2017, 77% of New Zealand’s population (3,677,400 people) lived in the North Island; 23% (1,115,800 people) in the South Island.
- In the year to June 2017, the South Island’s population grew by 1.8% (an increase of 19,700 people), compared to 2.2% for the North Island (an increase of 80,900 people).
- 55% of South Islanders (612,000 people) were estimated to live in Canterbury as at 30 June 2017. With 13% of New Zealand’s population, Canterbury is the most populous region in the South Island, and the second most populous region in New Zealand after the Auckland region. Even so, the population of the Auckland region (35% of New Zealand’s population; 1,657,200 people as at 30 June 2017) is almost three times larger than Canterbury’s.
- Of New Zealand’s 16 regional council areas (regions), 15 experienced population growth in the June 2017 year. Five regions had population growth above the national growth rate of 2.1%: Auckland (2.6%), Northland (2.3%), Waikato (2.4%), Bay of Plenty (2.2%) and Otago (2.3%).
Download data and charts on the estimated resident population of regional council areas, 2001 to 2017 – see worksheets 1 and 2.
Download data and charts on change in the estimated resident population of regional council areas, 2007 to 2017 – see worksheet 3.
Population change in regional council areas
- The population in an area grows or declines because of a combination of natural increase (more births than deaths) and net migration (the number of people who move into an area less the number who leave).
- In the year to June 2017, 15 of 16 regions experienced growth, and 11 of 16 had greater increases than in the year to June 2016.
- All regions had population gains from natural increase. 14 of 16 regions also had net migration gains. The West Coast had a net migration loss of 100 people, and natural increase of 100 resulting in no population change from the previous year.
- Net migration was the main contributor to growth in 13 regions, and contributed almost four-fifths of the growth in South Island regions.
- 80% of New Zealand’s population growth in the year to June 2017 happened in the North Island, with Auckland accounting for about 42% of growth.
- In Canterbury in the year to June 2017, there was natural increase of 2,800 people, and net migration of 9,300 people, resulting in population growth of 12,100 people. That is, 77% of Canterbury’s population growth in the year to June 2017 was due to net migration, compared to 72% for New Zealand as a whole.
Download data and charts on components of population change in regional council areas, 2007 to 2017 – see worksheet 4.
Estimates for Canterbury territorial authority areas
- The South Island had the fastest-growing districts in the June 2017 year: Queenstown-Lakes (6.9%), followed by Selwyn (5.5%).
- Eight of 10 territorial authority areas in Canterbury experienced population growth in the June 2017 year, with growth rates higher than both the national and overall regional rate of growth in Selwyn (5.5%) and Waimakariri (2.6%) districts. Two districts, Kaikoura (-0.3%) and Waimate (-0.6%) showed a decline in population growth rate.
- Canterbury’s population is unevenly distributed across its ten territorial authority areas. As at 30 June 2017, 62% of Canterbury’s population was estimated to live in Christchurch City (381,500 people). Eighty-two per cent of Canterbury’s population lived in the three ‘greater Christchurch’ TAs: Waimakariri District, Christchurch City and Selwyn District (500,100 people).
- At the other end of the scale, three districts are estimated to have fewer than 10,000 residents: Kaikōura district (3,720 people), Mackenzie district (4,600 people) and Waimate district (7,900 people).
Download data and charts on change in the estimated resident population of Canterbury territorial authority areas, – see worksheet 7.
Population change in Canterbury territorial authority areas
- The population in an area grows or declines because of a combination of natural increase (more births than deaths) and net migration (the number of people who arrive less those who depart).
- The loss of an estimated 16,600 people through net migration from Christchurch City in 2011 and 2012 was a consequence of the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquakes. For the first time since 2010, Christchurch City population has exceeded pre-earthquake levels - Christchurch City population was 376,700 in 2009-10 and 381,500 in 2016-17.
- Understanding historical trends in components of population change is important when planning for future population growth (or decline).
- For example, Waitaki District has had zero natural increase since 2007, but has achieved population gain of 900 people through net migration in the decade 2007–17. This illustrates that even with zero natural increase, the population can be held stable or grow if new migrants can be attracted to a region.